War Talk, Part II

More nostalgic musings from the quaint year 2003...


Sun, 9 Mar 2003 22:54:33 -0800 (PST)

Oh, I'm convinced there will be a war, too. It's simply not a good idea to pull out your dick, wave it around for a year and then put it back in your boxers. (Unless you're Pee-Wee Herman and fella, enough is enough.) Any compromise short of war would be viewed as an empty threat by the U.S. and cripple any further use of war as a necessary dimplomatic cudgel.

I'm not convinced nation-building through war is the greatest avenue, either. But we don't have this option with N. Korea and Iran. They've already got (at least some) nuclear capability, and in the case of the nutjob running Pyongang(sp?), enough conventional weapons to level most of Seoul.

One of the first rules of war is to fight only the battles you can win. We "won" in Afghanistan almost without fighting. Iraq should be decisive, if only costly (see below). Iran and NK are going to be much more sensitive and difficult problems.

It's funny, but reading the local papers here, I can't help but think that Kim Jung Il is completely bonkers to be provoking America like he is. But then again, he's been backed into a corner by GWB's Axis o' Evil speech so maybe insanity is a logical reaction.

And your letter explained the logistical difficulty of fighting this war as well. It is obvious to almost everyone that Saddam will hole up in Bahgdad using the Iraqi people as involuntary hostages to a U.S. seige that could become a bloodbath at best and a PR nightmare at worst. Bad PR, being the euphemism for ramptant anti-Americanism and exceeded terrorist recruitment quotas throughout the world.

But do you think this is worth the risk? I'm glad that you don't sound so sure. Anyone who professes clarity on the matter is, to me, a very scary person. There is no way to predict any outcome of such a complicated mess. I mean, even for the most informed insider, it's impossible to predict the outcome of NFL games, much less seasons and Superbowls. Even if you could forecast the military results of this war, there is no way to guage fallout concerning the larger concerns for our safety as Americans in an unbalanced and itchy world.

In this case of Iraq, we should easily win the war. It's just a matter of the cost. In U.S. lives, in non-military Iraqi lives, in billions of dollars for the invasion, billions and billions (forgive me, Carl Sagan) more for the occupation and reconstruction, in anti-American sentiment, and in unachieved goals if Saddam were to likely escape like Senor Bin Shithead. Or cornered, and like you said, more liable to push whatever WMD button he's got.

And then comparing this cost to the impossible to forecast hindsight we wouldn't have if Saddam went on biz as usual and a bomb just happened to find it's way to some blind cleric in Jersey City and his cousin's backpack on the top of the Empire State building, prior to a blinding explosion that peels the paint off of the upper west side and gives the residents of Soho a permanent orange afro.

But then again, what do I know?

--D. Bones